Muslim immigration to US is expected to double in next four years

 September 12, 2006

Immigration of Muslims to the US is predicted to double by 2010, says the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS). The organization estimates the current total Muslim population in the United States at approximately 3 million.

Muslim immigrants and their progeny now number some 2 million. With the perhaps 1 million American converts to Islam — mostly blacks — and you have a total Muslim population of about 3 million. The estimates put out by Muslim advocacy groups of 6 or even 12 million Muslims are seen as being too high, but, without a change in U.S. immigration policy, those numbers almost certainly will become true.

The overall size of the foreign-born population has tripled since 1970 and now stands at 31 million. But the number of immigrants from the Middle East has grown more than twice as fast, from fewer than 200,000 in 1970 to nearly 1.5 million in 2000. Roughly 10 percent, or about 150,000, are illegal aliens (based on INS estimates).

Interest in emigrating to the U.S. remains very strong in the Middle East. Even after the terror attacks, in October 2001 the State Department received some 1.5 million entries from the region for the visa lottery, which awards 50,000 green cards worldwide to those who win a random drawing. With no change in immigration policy, in just the next decade 1.1 million new immigrants (legal and illegal) from the Middle East are expected to settle in the U.S. Looking forward a little further, within less than 20 years the number of Muslim immigrants and their progeny will grow to perhaps 6 million.

The CIS also predicts that the growth could have “significant repercussions for our homeland security — and our [US] support for Israel.” In 1970, roughly 15 percent of Middle Eastern immigrants were Muslim; by 2000, almost 73 percent were.

“Opinion polls show that Middle Eastern immigrants are highly dissatisfied with U.S. policy toward the Arab-Israeli conflict and wish to see a tilt away from support for Israel. Given this, continued Mideast immigration appears likely to lead to changes in U.S. policy, as elected officials respond to Muslim Americans' growing electoral importance. Their increasing political influence was evident earlier this year when three Democratic House members from Michigan, whose districts contain fast-growing Arab immigrant communities, were among only 21 members voting against a resolution expressing solidarity with Israel against terrorism.”

A large Middle Eastern immigrant population would makes it easier for Islamic extremists to operate within the U.S. The September 11 hijackers used Middle Eastern immigrant communities for cover. The Washington Post reported that two 9/11 hijackers who lived in San Diego got help from "mosques and established members of [the city's] Islamic community" to "find housing, open a bank account, obtain car insurance — even, at one point, get a job." The New York Times observed that one of the many reasons Islamic terrorists prefer Germany as a base is that it's easier to "blend into a society with a large Muslim population."

Finally, and most importantly, cultural adaptation poses a special problem for Middle Eastern Muslim immigrants. There has been and continues to be a debate within Islam about whether someone can be a good Muslim while living in the land of unbelievers. There is also a debate among Muslims about whether a good Muslim can give his political allegiance to a secular government, such as ours, that is composed of non-Muslims. Many Muslims can and do become loyal Americans; they have served with distinction in the U.S. military. But for some share of Muslims, coming to identify fully with America will be difficult.